Lesson 0413 min
RESERVE · RUN · ORACLE

What Happens When Everyone Wants Out?

Apply reserve losses and repeated redemptions to see how coverage, supply, stale prices, and exit capacity expose the worst boundary.

ObjectivesAfter this lesson, you should be able to:
  • Trace how reserve loss changes coverage
  • Explain the difference between ordinary redemption and a run
  • Understand how wrong prices and thin reserves compound
COURSE POSITIONStep 4 of 4
  1. PREVIOUSWhat Is an Arbitrageur Repairing During a Depeg?
  2. CURRENTWhat Happens When Everyone Wants Out?

    Apply reserve losses and repeated redemptions to see how coverage, supply, stale prices, and exit capacity expose the worst boundary.

  3. NEXTFree sandbox
BEFORE YOU READ

Think about these questions first.

Choose an answer before opening the explanation. You can add anything unexpected to your review list.

Q01Why do early redeemers benefit when reserves are short?
SHORT ANSWER

If the system pays $1 first-come-first-served, early users take full value and leave the shortfall to remaining holders. That ordering advantage encourages everyone to run sooner.

Compared with your prediction:

The hardest moment for a stability promise is not when nobody trades; it is when everyone wants out at once. Supply alone hides reserve losses, stale prices, and redemption order. Put them on one state ledger.

Reserves, supply, and exit pressure

Once a system has issued 500 USD-LAB, it must keep answering:

  • What are reserves worth at the current price?
  • How much liability does the stablecoin supply represent?
  • After some holders redeem first, how much reserve still covers the remaining supply?
  • Is the price input current, or already stale?
STABLECOIN SIMULATIONVirtual reserves · no advice
STABLECOIN 001 · PEG / RESERVE / REDEMPTION

COLLATERAL → USD-LAB

Put a one-dollar target stablecoin into a state machine and watch minting, price, redemption, and reserves define the stability boundary.

Current stateNot mintedRatio
01Collateral
02Minting
03Market price
04Redemption
Target price$1.00protocol target
Market price$1.00Gap 0.00%
Circulating supply0USD-LAB
Reserve value$0.000 COLLATERAL
Available to mint0minimum ratio 150%
FOCUS EXPERIMENT · RESERVEReserves and run

Apply reserve loss and redeem repeatedly to expose coverage and remaining reserves.

Reserves & supplyNot minted
Reserve COLLATERAL
0
Supply / mint ceiling
0
Wallet collateral
1,000
Your USD-LAB
0
Lost reserves
0
Total redeemed
0

Supply is a protocol promise; reserves are the assets actually available at exit. Keep both on the same ledger.

PRICE INPUTS · PEG BOUNDARYTarget price is not market price

Move the outside market, then choose when the oracle updates. Current deviation 0.00%.

RESERVE RISK · RUN SCENARIOWho reaches the boundary after reserve loss?

Supply does not shrink automatically when reserves are lost. Apply loss, redeem part of the balance, and inspect coverage and exit capacity.

Collateral ratio
Reserve coverage
Redeemable collateral0
Observation prompt

Deposit collateral, then mint USD-LAB. Target, market, and oracle prices are three different states.

Stablecoin events1 EVENTS
  1. 01

    USD-LAB created:target price 1.00 USD, minting must be backed by collateral.

ACTION HISTORYExperiment timeline
1 state snapshots

Use the slider to return to an earlier step. Continuing from there replaces the later history with a new sequence.

Initial state
View experiment records →
Expand: how this step works
reserveValue = reserve × oraclePrice
liability    = supply × targetPrice
coverage     = reserveValue / liability

if coverage < liquidationThreshold:
  expose the shortfall

Stablecoin systems often also need reserve disclosure, risk-parameter governance, pause or liquidation paths, and a clear loss-absorber. This lab keeps the state small but makes conservation checks and bad states visible.

KNOWLEDGE CHECK

Why does existing supply not prove that every holder can exit at $1?

Recap: stability is not one number

A credible stablecoin system should state its target, collateral, issuance ceiling, redemption rule, reserve condition, price input, and loss absorber. Hide any one of them and users may mistake a label for a mechanism.

LESSON RECAPComplete the exercise and knowledge check first