Who Announces That the Future Happened?
Trading ending is not the end of the story: an outside result must enter the system before positions can pay out.
- Separate price discovery from reporting an outside result
- Explain the relationship between challenge windows, bonds, and wrong resolution
- PREVIOUS0.70 Is Not a Cosmic Truth
- CURRENTWho Announces That the Future Happened?
Trading ending is not the end of the story: an outside result must enter the system before positions can pay out.
- NEXTFree sandbox
Think about these questions first.
Choose an answer before opening the explanation. You can add anything unexpected to your review list.
Q01If 99% of the market buys YES, can the oracle still report NO?＋
Yes. The market discovers prices; the oracle imports the contract’s real-world result. Confidence cannot vote reality into existence, and a finalized oracle error can produce a procedurally valid but wrong payout.
Q02Why not just fix the oracle after a wrong settlement?＋
Payouts may already be claimed and assets moved, while the state machine blocks double settlement. Robust systems rely on challenge windows, pauses, and explicit finality before payout—not casual history edits afterward.
A blockchain can execute “if YES, pay 100” precisely, but it cannot look up at the Moon. An oracle brings an outside result into the system. It solves an input and trust problem—not the problem of predicting the future.
What happens after the market closes?
At the deadline, the market stops accepting new orders and cancels unfilled orders. A designated source then publishes a result, and the oracle reports YES, NO, or invalid.
If the first report were accepted immediately, a reporter's mistake or attack would decide the payout. Many designs add a challenge window, economic bonds, and dispute resolution.
An oracle does not predict the future. After the close time, it reports a fact using the agreed source. The challenge mechanism handles wrong or malicious reports.
Perfect matching cannot repair a wrong input
Imagine every signature, collateral check, and fill is correct—but the oracle writes NO when reality was YES. The system will execute the wrong payout with perfect precision.
This is the “garbage in, garbage out” boundary. Oracle designs trade off speed, cost, decentralization, and correction:
- Designated source: simple, but dependent on one source.
- Multi-reporter threshold: reduces one reporter's error.
- Optimistic oracle: accepts a report first and gives challengers time to object.
- Economic bond: makes an incorrect report costly, without proving the source is right.
Resolution is a one-time state transition
Once the result is final, the market moves from OPEN to RESOLVED. Winning shares redeem 100, losing shares redeem 0, each account can claim once, and total payout cannot exceed collateral.
Expand: how this step works
OPEN -> REPORT_PENDING -> DISPUTE_WINDOW -> RESOLVED
redeem(account):
require market == RESOLVED
require account has not redeemed
payout = winningShares(account) * 100
mark account redeemed
transfer payout
Marking the position before transferring funds prevents double claims.
What is the oracle's main job in a prediction market?
You have followed one market lifecycle
The six lessons now connect: a rule defines the asset; collateral funds payout; orders express budgeted views; matching creates trades; price provides a conditional signal; and the oracle brings reality back for settlement.