Write a Question That Can Settle
A vague question cannot create a reliable asset. Put the deadline, source, and resolution condition into the rule.
- Rewrite a natural-language question as a verifiable binary contract
- Identify the deadline, observable event, and resolution source
- PREVIOUSCourse introduction
- CURRENTWrite a Question That Can Settle
A vague question cannot create a reliable asset. Put the deadline, source, and resolution condition into the rule.
- NEXT100 Credits, Two Futures
Think about these questions first.
Choose an answer before opening the explanation. You can add anything unexpected to your review list.
Q01If a headline is clear, why can’t we trade it as-is?＋
A market trades an executable contract, not a sentence people roughly understand. Without a deadline, observable event, and named source, the losing side can reinterpret the question at settlement.
Q02If the event happens early, can the market settle immediately?＋
Not necessarily. The contract may require waiting for the deadline to rule out reversals, corrections, or invalid conditions. Knowing the likely answer and being allowed to settle are different states.
Q03Why not replace a weak resolution source after trading starts?＋
Changing the source rewrites the payout condition. Even a better source turns positions priced under the old rules into a different contract; the key questions are who can change it, whether holders can exit, and whether that power was disclosed before trading.
A prediction market does not start with a bet. It starts with a contract about the future. If the sentence cannot be judged as YES or NO at a defined moment, the price, trade, and payout have no shared foundation.
Meet the question in our lab
Alice thinks humans will return to the Moon soon. Bob expects another delay. That disagreement sounds like a market: Alice buys YES and Bob buys NO. But what does “soon” mean? Does a probe count? What if a commercial livestream conflicts with an official mission report?
These are not copywriting details. They define the asset itself. A YES share can pay only if everyone agrees what the share means.
Three anchors make a rule executable
- Deadline: when observation ends, including the time zone.
- Observable event: what must happen, rather than what people generally believe happened.
- Resolution source: which public source wins if evidence conflicts.
Will humans return to the Moon soon?
“Soon” has no deadline, and “humans return” names neither a verifiable source nor an exact event.
Write edge cases before trading starts
Reality does not always provide a polite YES or NO. A mission may launch before the deadline but land after it. An official source may be unavailable. An event may be cancelled or redefined. A mature market states in advance:
- how delayed data is handled;
- whether cancellation or source failure makes the market invalid and refunds collateral;
- who may dispute a report and for how long;
- which source wins when records conflict.
Without these rules, participants are not buying the same risk and the displayed price has no common meaning.
Expand: how this step works
MarketRule {
question
closeTime
resolutionTime
source
yesCondition
invalidCondition
}
Only a complete rule can move from DRAFT to OPEN.
Which market question is closest to being directly settleable?
State passed to the next lesson
We now have a binary contract every participant can read the same way. Next we ask where the winner's 100 credits come from, even when the losing trader disappears.